Friday, December 12, 2008

$200.00 a barrel? Jim Rogers agrees

Dobroe Utra! That means good morning.

All you Peak Freaks might want to brush up on your Russian now that Dmitry Anatolevich (Dmitry Anatolevich Medveydev: the President of Russia) has hinted that Russia may join OPEC.

And, did you notice that Jim Rogers, the co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, has stated that oil can go up to $200.00 a barrel? I agree. So does Matt Simmons.

Click here to check out Rogers' latest at Reuters.

Has Global Oil Production peaked? Nobody knows. But 85-87 Million barrels a day might be all we can get. We won't know for 10 or 20 years until we look back. It seems to be peaking RIGHT NOW.

The problem seems to be that oil prices are going to get a lot more volatile and could go into some big swings, maybe over $300.00 per barrel? Maybe $600.00?

All the "experts" have now been proven wrong. For example, how about all the wonder-boys who got ripped off by Bernie Madoff right in the middle of Wall Street. They couldn't even recognize a Ponzi when it was right in front of them for years. You might want to be a little more cautious about taking "advice" from the Wall Street machine. Including on Peak Oil.

Try to remember that the "economy," meaning all economies, in all countries are based on energy and the only energy we got is OIL.

Forget about the concept of "cycles." A cycle is like a nail in a tire and it clicks with each revolution. Oil prices, and supply and demand follow a much more complicated mathematics than just simplistic "business cycles" that don't exist in reality.

Oil prices follow the mathematics of non-linear dynamics. They're fractal. Natural. Beautiful.

The volatility being observed is caused by natural dynamics of a very complicated system and will continue and likely worsen.

Maybe the decline in production in most of the world's oilfields will influence a decline in volatility and price fluctuations. Maybe it won't. Good luck playing Nostradomus.

But all mathematics is the study of patterns. Natural patterns. And imperfect math leads to imperfect conclusions and "predictions." So expect more volatility.

And don't forget to compare your cup of coffee to a cup of oil (and remember to multiply by 667 cups per barrel of oil).


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