Thursday, November 20, 2008

The Energy Revolution, and the consequences of not having one.

The World's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable--environmentally, economically, socially. But that can- and must- be altered; there's still time to change the road we're on. It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends upon how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: 1) securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and 2) effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution.

So says the IEA's (International Energy Agency- for those of you who "don't habla" peak-oil-ese) just released report, World Energy Outlook 2008.

This is the big one. The report that all of us analysts have been waiting all through 2008 for.

The bottom line is that the world's energy situation is really, really bad.

The big news from this report is that for the first time the IEA included an analysis of the world's top 800 oilfield's DEPLETION RATES.

This is the first time the IEA has included such an analysis. This seems really strange to any sensible analyst. Why didn't they think to analyze the depletion rates before? Or did they?

The worst thing is that the IEA foolishly claims that "there is still time to change the road we're on." This is ridiculous, almost criminal, and certainly negligent.

There is no way we can change the road were on now. This isn't some fantasy world lost in the lyrics of a Led Zeppelin tune....this is the real world, not a drill.

The time to change the road we were on was back in 1974 when Hubbert CONFIRMED the Peak Oil problem was real. Or I guess you could say that the time to change the road we are on was back in 1962 when Hubbert reported to President Kennedy about the Peak Oil dragon that was sneaking up on us.

Here's the scary thing, the GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS is not the big problem. Peak Oil is way bigger.

It is just hard for people to accept the reality that all the stock valuations of all companies are hugely overstated because no company has yet accounted for the cost of Peak Oil!

The IEA is right. We do need an energy revolution. Yesterday.

But the consequences are just hard to fathom. The biggest one is the certainty of the reversal of the "green revolution" as soon as Peak Oil prevents the production of the vast amounts of fertilizers and pesticides that we currently use to feed the world.

If this doesn't keep you up at night, you are either living in an illusion or smoking some good dope or both.

Americans are directly responsible for this problem. America uses 25% of the world's oil. The american lifestyle based on cheap oil for transportation is crashing to a halt and killing the rest of the people in the world.

Forget the financial crisis. The Peak Oil crisis is what is causing the financial crisis.

It is not patriotic to ignore reality and continue to live a life of wastefulness that is driving the world towards starvation. Americans need to get a clue and change the vibration.

But, make no mistake about it, it is too late to change the road we're on. There is no chance of changing the american infrastructure enough to become sustainable. That is what the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq is all about.

President Obama needs your help. If you are powerful enough to get some face time with the guy, do us all a favor and help him to understand the the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is supposed to be saved for a real EMERGENCY, which by design means something like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a Saudi Terrorist event crippling Saudi production capacity.

And Mr. Barack needs to know that bailing out the dinosaur automakers is the wrong plan. GM should be taken out back and shot and left to die. All those autoworkers should be re-aligned to make vehicles that get 50-60 or 100 miles per gallon, not just meet the ridiculous CAFE standards that the corrupt auto industry lobby sold to the congress.

We need an new, New Deal. There is plenty of work for everyone. How about fixing all the thousands of bridges that are completely corroded and unsafe?

How about a New, New Deal that promotes communities to grow food locally, to avoid the oil expense it takes to truck food all across the country? These things are so basic, we just have to open our AWARENESS, of Peak Oil.

Otherwise, get ready for the consequences....

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Hold your breath, or not

So, crude oil is down to $58.00 USD or thereabouts.

Interesting, isn't it?

What do you think? Do people really think oil, and therefore gasoline prices are going back down to stay?

It was all just "speculators," wasn't it? Yeah, that probably explains it.

Notice how the author bashed Matt Simmons by calling him a "gadfly." Hmmm.

It seems that Twilight in the Desert really pissed off the Saudis.

I don't doubt it. Kind of a "Syriana" moment, huh?

Well, you might not want to hold your breath just yet.

After all, there is such a thing as the "intrinsic value" to any asset. And oil is the most valuable type of asset we got.

I find it hard to believe that anybody could fail to understand the simple logic of merely comparing one liquid to another. Such as, perhaps, a cup of coffee to a cup of oil?


How tough could it be?

Which would you rather have? A cup of oil, or a cup of coffee?

Well, try pouring some Starbucks into your Cadillac Escalade and see how far you get.

If you really think that oil is only worth $58.00 a barrel, you have got a lot of 'splainin' to do!

I wouldn't start holding your breath that oil is going to stay this low, or go down to $3.00 USD a barrel like it was before the 1973 oil crisis!

And, if you really believe that the Saudis are going to "prove up" their reserves from 263B to 450B, billion barrels, that is, then I've got some property on the bottom of the ocean I'd like to sell you!

At this point, I have to admit, my "prediction" of $200.00 USD per barrel by December 2008 is not likely to happen. The best that I can guess right now is that the world got a "get out of jail" card that will give us about 3 to 5 years more to prepare for the Peak Oil disaster.

In other words, the hump at the top of the Peak Oil mountain is getting flattened out by the Global Economic Crisis.

But, make no mistake about it, Peak Oil is sneaking up on you right now......

Breathe, while you still can