Ding Dong the Witch is Dead!

Ding, Dong, the Witch is DEAD!

Ding, Dong, the Wicked Witch is dead!!!

Hey all you Peak Freakers, time to celebrate! The wicked witch is dead!

Finally! Finally!! The SUV is dead.

Check out this article from the New York Times about the closing of the last of the plants making SUVs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/24/business/24auto.html?_r=1&hp

Obviously it is unfortunate when autoworkers lose their jobs.

But at least now the Peak Oil message is getting through.

It doesn't work to have a whole country full of soccer moms driving around in 6 or 7 thousand pound steel beasts.

I guess America is finally getting what it deserves. This is exactly the outcome that the US government carefully planned for the last 34 years!!!

Yeah! Aren't you impressed?

Remember a few years ago there was that tax rule that gave you a break if the vehicle weighed OVER 6 THOUSAND POUNDS!!!

That was about the stupidest thing the government could have done.

I remember all sorts of wanna-be's all of a sudden buying Hummers and huge crew cab trucks and anything else they didn't need that weighed over 6 thousand.

It was insane. That just helped the SUV to crash and burn.

People were stupid enough to drive a 6 thousand pound SUV three miles to the store and back and then they wondered why they were getting so fat and they spent so much money every month on gasoline.

Make no mistake. The death of the SUV is a direct result of Peak Oil.

If oil had not peaked in the USA in 1971, there would still be plenty of cheap fuel and the SUVs would be selling like hotcakes because obviously Americans prefer the increased visibility you get when driving a big, tall SUV and the convenience of bringing a whole truck full of junk along with them everyday, everywhere.

No more of that, huh?

I've had my share of SUVs just like most Americans.

Chevy Blazer. 700 horsepower. 8 miles per gallon.

Dodge Durango. 12 miles per gallon.

Dodge 1500. 12 miles per gallon.

Ford E350. 8,500 pounds. V10 engine. 15 miles per gallon.

Even though about 80 percent of the miles I drove on those vehicles since 1975 were work-related miles and much of the time I had the vehicle full of "tools," I still have no legitimate rationalization for the other 20% of the miles I drove in a big SUV.

I started driving an SUV in 1975.

Nobody. I mean nobody drove SUVs then.

My friends all drove Porsches. (remember the song? Janis Joplin?). They thought I was weird, or stupid for driving a big beast.

I remember being so amused when people started driving SUVs. It wasn't usually because they needed to carry a whole load of lumber or concrete finishing tools or motocross bikes. Lots of people just got tired of driving shitty sedans with crappy acceleration and no creature features.

I remember when chicks used to complain about SUVs because they were "hard to park."

Well, the girls got over that a long time ago.

The death of the SUV is going to be a big blow to lots of folks for lots of reasons.

I guess some of the Nannys that drive kids to private school in Newport Beach every morning are going to have to adapt. No more Cadillac Escalades and Chevy Yukons!

Good luck selling your SUV!!! I got rid of mine a couple of years ago.

By the way....Pop quiz. Do you know where the closest electrical outlet is to your workplace where you can plug in your new PHEV? Hmmm......

I wonder how Arnold is coming along with that "hydrogen highway" up and down California. ;-)

Enjoy the crash after the Peak!

$200.00 a barrel? Jim Rogers agrees

Dobroe Utra! That means good morning.

All you Peak Freaks might want to brush up on your Russian now that Dmitry Anatolevich (Dmitry Anatolevich Medveydev: the President of Russia) has hinted that Russia may join OPEC.

And, did you notice that Jim Rogers, the co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, has stated that oil can go up to $200.00 a barrel? I agree. So does Matt Simmons.

Click here to check out Rogers' latest at Reuters.

Has Global Oil Production peaked? Nobody knows. But 85-87 Million barrels a day might be all we can get. We won't know for 10 or 20 years until we look back. It seems to be peaking RIGHT NOW.

The problem seems to be that oil prices are going to get a lot more volatile and could go into some big swings, maybe over $300.00 per barrel? Maybe $600.00?

All the "experts" have now been proven wrong. For example, how about all the wonder-boys who got ripped off by Bernie Madoff right in the middle of Wall Street. They couldn't even recognize a Ponzi when it was right in front of them for years. You might want to be a little more cautious about taking "advice" from the Wall Street machine. Including on Peak Oil.

Try to remember that the "economy," meaning all economies, in all countries are based on energy and the only energy we got is OIL.

Forget about the concept of "cycles." A cycle is like a nail in a tire and it clicks with each revolution. Oil prices, and supply and demand follow a much more complicated mathematics than just simplistic "business cycles" that don't exist in reality.

Oil prices follow the mathematics of non-linear dynamics. They're fractal. Natural. Beautiful.

The volatility being observed is caused by natural dynamics of a very complicated system and will continue and likely worsen.

Maybe the decline in production in most of the world's oilfields will influence a decline in volatility and price fluctuations. Maybe it won't. Good luck playing Nostradomus.

But all mathematics is the study of patterns. Natural patterns. And imperfect math leads to imperfect conclusions and "predictions." So expect more volatility.

And don't forget to compare your cup of coffee to a cup of oil (and remember to multiply by 667 cups per barrel of oil).

Enjoy!

Hold your breath, or not

So, crude oil is down to $58.00 USD or thereabouts.

Interesting, isn't it?

What do you think? Do people really think oil, and therefore gasoline prices are going back down to stay?

It was all just "speculators," wasn't it? Yeah, that probably explains it.

Check out this article in Forbes. 

http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/1124/044.html

Notice how the author bashed Matt Simmons by calling him a "gadfly." Hmmm.

It seems that Twilight in the Desert really pissed off the Saudis.

I don't doubt it. Kind of a "Syriana" moment, huh?

Well, you might not want to hold your breath just yet.

After all, there is such a thing as the "intrinsic value" to any asset. And oil is the most valuable type of asset we got.

I find it hard to believe that anybody could fail to understand the simple logic of merely comparing one liquid to another. Such as, perhaps, a cup of coffee to a cup of oil?

Duh!

How tough could it be?

Which would you rather have? A cup of oil, or a cup of coffee?

Well, try pouring some Starbucks into your Cadillac Escalade and see how far you get.

If you really think that oil is only worth $58.00 a barrel, you have got a lot of 'splainin' to do!

I wouldn't start holding your breath that oil is going to stay this low, or go down to $3.00 USD a barrel like it was before the 1973 oil crisis!

And, if you really believe that the Saudis are going to "prove up" their reserves from 263B to 450B, billion barrels, that is, then I've got some property on the bottom of the ocean I'd like to sell you!

At this point, I have to admit, my "prediction" of $200.00 USD per barrel by December 2008 is not likely to happen. The best that I can guess right now is that the world got a "get out of jail" card that will give us about 3 to 5 years more to prepare for the Peak Oil disaster.

In other words, the hump at the top of the Peak Oil mountain is getting flattened out by the Global Economic Crisis.

But, make no mistake about it, Peak Oil is sneaking up on you right now......

Breathe, while you still can